Shen, L. (2025). Illegal immigration and infections: Evidence from two modern pandemics. Economic Modelling, 145, 106963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106963
Abstract:
The predominant attention on the global transmission of pandemics has centered on official travel. This study
shifts the lens to the role of illegal immigration in the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics using trafficking inflow
risk. The empirical strategy exploits cross-country differences in coastline lengths as a measure of porosity to
instrument for trafficking risk, with fatality rates used as falsification tests. The findings show that countries
with higher trafficking risk experience higher infection rates, but not higher fatality rates. Combining an
augmented epidemiological model of transmission dynamics with high-frequency COVID-19 data, this study
identifies early increases in contact rates as a key mechanism driving transmission. These results underscore
the importance of early lockdowns in curbing transmission and expose possible gaps in public health systems
for vulnerable populations during pandemics.
License type:
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Funding Info:
There was no specific funding for the research done