Determining Epidemic Threshold for Dengue Incidences in Singapore Based on Extreme Value Theory

Determining Epidemic Threshold for Dengue Incidences in Singapore Based on Extreme Value Theory
Title:
Determining Epidemic Threshold for Dengue Incidences in Singapore Based on Extreme Value Theory
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11th international conference on mathematical methods in reliability
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01 June 2019
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Abstract:
Dengue is endemic and with year-round presence in Singapore and it presents a serious economic and disease burden to the public. Early detection of dengue outbreaks is very important for an effective disease surveillance system, which targets to detect signals of disease outbreaks earlier before it bursts into larger scale infections and spread. In the current practice, an outbreak is often defined as the dengue incidence exceeding a threshold, which is calculated based on the mean and standard deviations during past few years. However, such a threshold is not robust in determining the outbreaks, as argued by many authors in the literature. In this study, we propose to determine the threshold by using the generalized Pareto distribution, which is a useful extreme value model. We show that the dengue outbreaks by the proposed thresholds are more reasonable than the existing thresholds.
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This work is partially supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore under 748 grant No. NRF2017VSG-AT3DCM001-04.
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