Kathryn A Berger, David M Pigott, Francesca Tomlinson, David Godding, Sebastian Maurer-Stroh, Biruhalem Taye, Fernanda L Sirota, Alvin Han, Raphael T C Lee, Vithiagaran Gunalan, Frank Eisenhaber, Simon I Hay, Colin A Russell, The Geographic Variation of Surveillance and Zoonotic Spillover Potential of Influenza Viruses in Domestic Poultry and Swine, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Volume 5, Issue 12, December 2018, ofy318, https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofy318
Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts.
We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359105 reports of surveillance activities.
Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively.
Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.